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Im going to write in defence of Capitals RW Alex Ovechkin, if only because there have been some recent attacks and, while I can certainly live with them being directed at Ovechkin, the analytical process ought to be better, particularly if its going to be a hit piece on the leagues leading goal-scorer. Jose Altuve Jersey . Yes, Im writing to defend a player that is on pace for a 59-goal season, when the second-best goal-scorer in the NHL this season, Torontos Phil Kessel, is on pace for 43. Naturally, I didnt think that Ovechkin would be a player that needed much defending, but hes taken some hits lately. Im going to largely ignore his contributions on the power play because its not in any dispute that Ovechkin is great with the man advantage and can make a difference even when he doesnt score. On one side of the discussion, we have the Toronto Star, with their Department of Hockey Analytics, and while there are plenty of flaws in Ovechkins game, they somehow determined that his goals-for/against percentage was the way to illustrate the problem. Never mind that goals for/against percentage is essentially measuring plus-minus. Ill get to that in a moment but, first, also peruse the Hockey News piece by Ken Campbell who, after Ovechkin was minus-5 against Columbus, decided that Ovechkin has to decide what kind of player he is. After all, Ovechkin was minus-17 on the season after that game. Whats odd about using plus-minus to denigrate Ovechkins contributions is that anyone doing serious analytical work in hockey has been against using plus-minus because it involves so many factors beyond an individual players control (not least of which are the contributions of nine other skaters and two goaltenders when the game is 5-on-5) and, generally, involves small samples because goals are relatively rare events. Its funny to find myself in this position, because I can be a bit of an apologist for plus-minus. You spend enough time around the game and that thinking can be pretty common, and when the sample is large enough, you can get a pretty decent list of players at both ends of the spectrum. (For example, heres the list of players with the best cumulative plus-minus since 2000, and here are the worst.) But, Ive at least learned that there are many other factors that go into whether a player is a plus or minus player, and they must be considered if youre going to attempt to pass judgment on a single season or, especially, a portion of a season. So, lets take a look at some factors that are at play to make Alex Ovechkin a minus-17. First off, the shooting percentage of others on the ice with Ovechkin at 5-on-5 is ridiculously low. His 6.3% is only ahead of fourth-liners Aaron Volpatti and Jay Beagle among Capitals forwards. The suggestion could be made -- and of course it has been -- that Ovechkin isnt making those around him better, but here are the 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentages when Ovechkin has been on the ice for the past five seasons: 10.36%, 8.62%, 8.05%, 11.76%, 9.09%. Youre really going to have to dig for reasons, other than poor luck and ineffective shooters, to explain even-strength shooting effectiveness declining by 40% over last season, especially when Ovechkin himself is shooting 10.6% (18 goals, 170 shots) at 5-on-5. Taking away Ovechkins 18 goals on 170 shots, leaves the other Capitals to score eight goals on 242 shots (3.3%) with Ovechkin on the ice. Marcus Johansson, his most common left winger, has one goal on 51 shots. This undeniably effects plus-minus, right? Of course it does. Give Ovechkin an average on-ice shooting percentage (say, 8%) and that is a difference of about seven goals. At the other end of the rink, Ovechkin is getting burned with a .909 save percentage at 5-on-5. Naturally, the argument will be that Ovechkins defensive play is what leads to that low percentage. Keep in mind, that percentage is well below career norms for him (.922 over the past five seasons, including this one) and ranks near the bottom on the Capitals roster. Use that typical save percentage, on 439 shots against, and that becomes a difference of 5-6 goals. So, why not take a look at where the shots are coming from with Ovechkin on the ice? According to Some Kind of Ninjas Shot Tracker, shots against the Capitals with Ovechkin on the ice at even strength, come from an average distance of 34.5 feet. In the previous five seasons, it has been 34.2, 36.6, 35.8, 34.6 and 35.9 feet on average. There can be an argument made, based on those average shot distances, that Ovechkins most effective defensive performances were in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 (the Dale Hunter season), but there really isnt a huge difference; goaltenders arent suddenly flummoxed by 34-foot shots when 36-footers are easy pickings. On top of that, best of luck trying to identify those particular seasons as anything close to Ovechkins best. Why? Because he scored 70 goals and 150 points in 157 games over those two seasons, producing the two lowest point scoring rates of his career. Yes, even lower than this season, when virtually no one else puts the puck in the net with him on the ice. Of course Ovechkin is not a defensive whiz, but that shouldnt stand as an indictment any more than it has for elite offensive players throughout the history of the game. Seriously, take a look at the Top 10 goal-scorers in the league, none of whom put the puck in the net like Ovechkin, and identify the ones that are notably strong backcheckers. Some are: Joe Pavelski, Alexander Steen, Patrick Sharp, but theres no reason to believe that right wingers Kessel or Corey Perry or Patrick Kane are doing brilliant work in the defensive end. Heres the thing: theyre all great players! Part of the trouble for Ovechkin is that the Capitals havent been able to win in the postseason, so he gets painted with the brush of failure for a whole host of team shortcomings. Thats what comes with being a superstar. This Capitals team is flawed. They rank in the bottom third of the league in Fenwick Close (measuring shot attempts, not including blocks, at even strength, with the score close), which is a good indication of team puck possession, yet Ovechkin has relatively solid possession numbers. If you want to break down a players overall contribution, and feel that you must use one statistic in order to do so (better yet, dont), then at least reduce the impact of others on the ice and look at the possession stats, because it wont matter that linemates arent finishing or that, for whatever reason, goaltenders arent stopping the puck. Shooting and save percentages fluctuate and while they affect perception -- just ask Tyler Bozak -- they dont get to the bottom of a players on-ice contribution, and so it is with Ovechkin this year, who is having a fine season, no matter what his plus-minus says. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook. Houston Astros Jerseys . Parmelee hit a game-ending shot in the ninth inning and the Minnesota Twins overcame David Ortizs big night to beat the Boston Red Sox 8-6 on Tuesday. Nolan Ryan Authentic Jersey . Bryan Murray made an announcement after the GMs meetings - and as was reported by Pierre LeBrun a couple of weeks ago - that Jason Spezza wants a trade out of Ottawa. Whats the latest on that? Pierre LeBrun: Yes, he made it public. PORTLAND, Ore. -- Damian Lillard had 32 points and the short-handed Portland Trail Blazers rallied to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 108-97 on Sunday night. Thomas Robinson had 14 points and a career-high 18 rebounds for Portland, which won its second straight after a three-game slump. Kevin Love scored 31 for Minnesota, which had won three in a row. It was Loves franchise-best fifth straight game with 30 or more points. The Blazers played without All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge, who missed his third straight game with a groin injury. After trailing by as many as 18 points in the first half, Nicolas Batums fast-break layup gave Portland an 84-80 lead going into the fourth quarter. After Robinsons basket, Victor Claver dunked to extend the lead to 88-80. It was more of the same as the Blazers continued to attack. Robinson, who sparked the second-half comeback, blocked Corey Brewers shot on one end, Claver grabbed the rebound and Will Barton broke free for a dunk that gave Portland a 92-83 lead. Lillards 3-pointer made it 105-91 with 4:14 left, and Timberwolves coach Rick Adelman took Love out with 3:36 to go. The Timberwolves were coming off a 121-104 victory at Utah on Saturday night. Love led the way with 37 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists for his first career triple-double. Love presented a significant matchup problem for the Blazers with Aldridge sidelined by a left groin strain. Aldridge, who averages a team-high 23.9 points and 11.4 rebounds, is expected to be re-evaluated in the next few days. Aldridge wasnnt the only Blazer hurting: The team was also without forward Joel Freeland because of a right knee sprain and centre Meyers Leonard because of a left ankle sprain. Jose Cruz Jr. Authentic Jersey. Love finished with 10 rebounds. The Timberwolves continued to miss centre Nikola Pekovic because of a sore right ankle and Kevin Martin because of a fractured bone in his left thumb. Love got off to a fast start with seven points as the Timberwolves built an early 18-9 lead. By the end of the opening quarter, Love had 13. Minnesota extended the lead to 43-28 early in the second quarter on Shabazz Muhammads short jumper. The Timberwolves stretched the lead to 52-34 after a short jumper and a pair of free throws from J.J. Barea. Portland then got back into the game with an 18-8 run capped by Robinsons two layups and Nicolas Batums 3-pointer, closing the gap to 60-52 at the half. A pair of 3-pointers from Lillard and Batum put Portland in front 74-73. It was short-lived and Love drained a 3 to give Minnesota an 80-76 lead before the Blazers furious fourth-quarter surge. Portland was coming off a 102-94 victory over the Jazz on Friday night. Lillard had 28 points, including 14 in the fourth quarter. NOTES: Love is from Lake Oswego, just outside of Portland. ... Adelman coached the Blazers from 1989-94, guiding the team to two Western Conference titles. ... Love has at least 25 points and 10 rebounds in 10 straight games, the longest run of 25-10 games since Shaquille ONeal had 13 in a row in 2001. ... Love has an NBA-high 47 double-doubles. cheap jerseys from china cheap jerseys ' ' ' |
